CycleIntelligence

Frequently Asked Questions

1.  How long is the free trial?

The free trial is 30 days.  However, should you need additional time, please contact us and we will be glad to work with you on a case-by-case basis.  Normally, you should be able to assess the value of the forecasts in a very short period of time.

 

2.  What can I do if I have a question about the Application?

Call us any time at 888-455-9584 or email us at support@cycleintelligence.com.  You can also use our "Live Help" during normal office hours.  You can access Live Help from the top of any section of our website.

 

3.  How accurate are the forecasts?

The forecast are based on a complex mathematical model utilizing time-cycles and historical closing prices.  You can find additional information about this on our Forecast Accuracy Page.

 

4.  Am I limited on the number of forecasts I can run?

No, but the forecast algorithms need a minimum of 12 months of historical data and prefer at least 6 years of closing price data.  You can run a forecast on any ticker in the database as long as it has a minimum of 12 months of historical closing prices.

 

5.  My company has lots of forecasting systems.  Why is your system any better than what we have now?

Our time-cycle forecasting algorithms are proprietary to CycleIntelligence and, as such, are unique.  Whether or not our forecasting accuracy is better than what you have now is an easy question to answer.  Just run some forecasts and compare the outcome with what actually happens.  This is the best test for any forecasting system.

 

6.  Sometimes, the forecast changes significantly when I run the forecast tool on one day and then run it again for the same equity the next day.  How can I trust the forecast when this happens?

It is important to understand the following when it comes to the CycleIntelligence forecasts:

A.  The first step in forecasting is to analyze the historical closing prices to find the most predictive cycles.  This is a complex process.  You can read more about this in the 'How We Forecast' section of the website.  But, to summarize...The selection of cycles is tied to historical data and even one additional day can open or close the viability of a previously detected cycle or cycles.  This does not happen often, but it can happen.  This means the newly detected cycles can produce a different forecast.  We recommend that you do not rerun forecasts on individual securities more often than once per week.  This has proven to give the most consistent level of forecasts.

 B.  Each new day also brings with it the potential of an exogenous (one-off) event that can skew the forecast trend higher or lower than would have 'normally' occurred.  This can change the most recent trend of the price data.  If the current trend reverses from the forecast trend, the model assumes an exogenous event has occurred and provides the user with an estimate of how long it will impact the change in price trend.  When these events occur, we call them "inversions".  This is why, in some instances, the near-term forecast will abruptly change and move into a completely new and opposite trend.  This is not, by the way, a bad thing when it comes to forecasting.  Since exogenous-affected trend reversals can occur at any time and may only be an anomaly for a few days to weeks in duration, the key is to be able to recognize when a reversal is in play.  Our forecasting system adjusts the forecasts in these cases, automatically.  This dynamic adjustment of forecasts is a powerful and important benefit to the user.